Monday, May 28, 2007

Forex Charts - Using Technical Analysis for Bigger FX Profits

If you look at any Forex chart, you’ll see trends. If you use technical analysis as a cornerstone of your Forex trading strategy, you’ll be able to spot these trends and trade them for big profits.

There are however many misconceptions about using Forex charts, so here we’ll explain how it works and provide some tips on using technical analysis for bigger FX profits.

What is Technical Analysis?

In essence, it’s the study of price action to identify trends - spotting repetitive chart patterns that can be traded for profits.

FOREX chart patterns repeat themselves - as they reflect human psychology, which is constant.

Many traders think that simply studying Forex charts can’t work - because it doesn’t take into account the supply and demand situation – but it does actually work.

A simple equation will explain why.

Market Perception (trader psychology) + Fundamentals (supply & demand) = Price

Price action reflects all the fundamentals - and more importantly, how the participants perceive them.

In today’s world of instant communications, the fundamentals instantly show up in price action - so technical analysis simply assumes that all known fundamentals show up in price action instantly.

Some of the largest price moves in history have occurred with little or no change in the fundamentals. These price moves were caused by human psychology - and currency technical analysis is able to study this. This gives you a huge advantage – when you accept that ultimately, it’s people that determine the price of anything.

The right price is the market price - so you see the reality, rather than listening to the opinions of others.

Let’s review the three assumptions technical analysis is based on - currency technical analysis makes the following assumptions:

1. Markets Discount

As we have explained, all fundamentals show up quickly in the price. You are therefore seeing the impact of the fundamentals - and seeing how humans perceive them at the same time.

2. Trends Persist

In currency trading, you get great trends. Simply look at any currency chart and you’ll see long-term trends – lasting weeks, months or years.

History Repeats Itself

The basis of currency technical analysis is that what has happened in the past will happen again - as human psychology never changes.

As chart patterns reflect shifts in human psychology, certain patterns and trends will repeat themselves repeatedly.

However, keep in mind that charting is an art, rather than a science.

While human behavior does repeat itself, humans can be unpredictable as well - so you’re trading the odds, not certainties.

The good news is that by using technical analysis of currencies, you can get the odds in your favor - and make big long-term profits.

Now, lets look at some tips on using technical analysis for bigger profits:

1. Focus on the longer term trends

Currencies tend to reflect the underlying health of the economy. This creates longer-term trends that last for months or years - so focus on the longer-term trends, rather than the short term “market noise”.

2. Use a simple system

If you want to develop an effective Forex trading system, keep it simple - support and resistance, and a few confirming indicators are all you need.

In online currency trading, it’s a fact that simple systems work best - as there are fewer elements to break, in the real and brutal world of trading.

3. Trade in isolation

This is a key factor that you must learn as part of your Forex trading education.

Don’t be influenced by the opinions of others, or the news – you’ll hear convincing stories, but that’s all they are - and remember journalists are not traders!

If you follow the news, or let your emotions get involved, you’ll end up in the company of the majority of traders – losers!

4. Be patient and be disciplined

Don’t trade all the time - only trade when your system generates trading signals - and then follow the trade with discipline.

A Simple way to make Big Online Profits

Using Forex charts, the right way can be very lucrative - as they represent the most time efficient and powerful way of building big profits in online Forex trading.10

The Truth About Trade Currency

In finance, the exchange rate (also known as the foreign-exchange rate, forex rate or FX rate) between two currencies specifies how much one currency is worth in terms of the other. The spot exchange rate refers to the current exchange rate. The forward exchange rate refers to an exchange rate that is quoted and traded today but for delivery and payment on a specific future date. This way of trading is different to the futures markets, for example, where the marks, francs and yen are the fixed trade currency, resulting in a US dollar denominated profit or loss.

Currency

The rate at which one currency is converted into another currency is the rate of exchange between the currencies concerned. If the exports of the country exceed imports the demand for the local currency in the exchange market will rise. Where the increase in value is beyond the support point the central bank of the country intervenes in the market to sell local currency and thus the foreign exchange reserves of the country increase. The sale of local currency in the market leads to increase in money supply in the country causing inflation.

Exporters and importers know in advance how much they will receive or they will have to pay in terms of home currency. Lenders on long term would be prompted to invest in other countries only when the return in terms of home currency is ensured by stable exchange rates.

The British Pound is the currency of the United Kingdom as well as a major currency traded worldwide by corporations, institutions, banks, commodity funds, and futures traders. The Swiss Franc one of the world's strongest currencies and enjoys a reputation as a safe haven currency.

Trade

Many countries maintain their currencies pegged through trade and exchange controls at a level higher than that would prevail in a free market. The introduction of flexible rate system would substantially deteriorate their terms of trade. The CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) offers trading in a wide variety of currency futures, but the reality is that low volume and open interest in many currency futures markets make them unsuitable for most traders. Today, the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) is the largest market for

exchange-traded currency futures in the world and is considered the world's premier exchange for the trading of currency futures and options. The Advantages of Trading Currency Futures Currency futures trade nearly 24 hours – Traders looking to profit from market movements can act any time of the day or night during the trading week to take advantage of changing market conditions.

Exchange

The conversion of currencies is done by banks who deal in foreign exchange. The rate of exchange for a currency is known from the quotation in the foreign exchange market. The banks operating at a financial centre and dealing in foreign exchange, the rates in the foreign exchange market . As in any commodity or stock market the rates in the foreign exchange market are determined by the interaction of the forces of demand for and supply of the commodity dealt in foreign exchange.

Fixed exchange rates refer to the system under the gold standard where the rate of exchange tends to stabilize around the mint par value. Any large variation of the rate of exchange from the mint par value would entail flow of gold into or from the country. The present day situation where gold standard no longer exists, fixed rates of exchange refer to maintenance of external value of the currency at a predetermined level. Whenever the exchange rate differs from this level it is corrected through official intervention.

Conclusion

Customers can now trade currency from home, office, laptop on the go or even from an internet caf. Trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. The exchange rate between currencies in currencies in a foreign exchange market is affected by a number of factors. The rates are free to fluctuate according to the changes in demand and supply forces with no restrictions on buying and selling of foreign currencies in the exchange market. The rapid price changes associated with Currency Futures create practically continuous trading opportunities. Luckily, there are no daily limits on foreign exchange trading and no restrictions on trading hours other than the weekend.

Learn Forex Trading - Where to Start

The foreign exchange market is a dog eat dog world and if an investor ventures in without the essential arsenal of knowledge and tools, it can lead to financially devastating results. The most vital issue for any investor wanting to learn Forex trading is that there is no get rich quick associated with it. There are many frauds out there that claim to have the ultimate Forex system that will make you rich overnight. If that were true, there wouldn't be Forex brokers who have been in the business for thirty years. These brokers would be rich, retired and living in a hot tropical island someplace having margaritas delivered to them by pretty girls in grass skirts.

With that said, it should now be obvious that there are no shortcuts with being able to learn Forex trading. The investment of time is required before any actual money can be invested by learning the various tools, programs and platforms that are utilized on the Forex market. Having the confidence of knowing that you were able to learn Foreign Exchange trading though experience with demo accounts can create an atmosphere to generate unlimited return potential.

In order to learn Forex trading a prospective investor should solicit the expertise of a Forex broker or brokerage firm. They will greatly assist any investor in learning the Forex principles and the reasons that drive this volatile market. Before one can really succeed with the Forex market, these skill sets needs to be acquired and well comprehended. The Forex broker will set any investor up with a demo account in order to learn Forex trading like it is actually being executed. This is often the best type of learning mechanism because it gives the user hands on experience without suffering any financial loss. This stage of trying to learn Foreign Exchange trading is often referred to as paper trading as no actual money is being gained or lost.

Starting with the time and effort required to learn Forex trading will pay off handsomely once the investor goes 'live' on the Forex market. At the time the investor goes live and begins putting his or her own capital on the line, they will have been showing a steady track records of gains and be familiar from the demo or paper trading period. Learn Forex trading by starting with the time; learn everything that pertains to this quickly changing market so that success is just a trade away. There is the potential to earn unlimited income once a significant margin account is built up but as with anything, skipping the training step will put you in a snake pit unprotected. Learn Forex trading and minimize the financial risk associated with the biggest financial market in the world.

Forex Currency Trading System

For those traders who do not use a Forex currency trading system, they will have to face the possibility of losing money at some stage in their career. This is because they do not carry out their trading in a disciplined way. By using a forex currency trading system they are assured that they will be able to keep their losses to a minimum and continue to trade.

By using such a system a trader is able to remain level headed and face each trade with as little emotion as possible. It is this forex currency trading system system that they have in place which will help them to determine when it is time to execute a trade. This is because they will have price levels relating to the initial stop loss, trailing loss as well as relating to computed and projected price profits all of which have been pre-determined before they start trading.

Those traders who have a system that they follow will end up making some profits when they trade correctly. However if the trade turns out to be wrong then having a system in place will quickly show them that the direction they have chosen is wrong and this in turn helps them to realize that they must get out of the trade as quickly as possible so as to prevent further losses occurring.

When it comes to choosing a forex currency trading system to use then look at other traders which ones they would recommend. Ask them about the experiences that they have had with the system that they have used or are using? Also ask them how using that system or systems has helped them? A great way of getting answers to questions like these is posting them on Forex trading forums and you will be amazed at just how many answers you will receive in reply to your questions.

Also it is important that you learn as much as you can about every type of Forex currency trading system that is available.

What is extremely important however is that if you wish to trade successfully then you will need a Forex currency trading system which ensures that you approach the task in a disciplined way. It is only if you become disciplined when trading will you start to see more gains than losses. Certainly using any kind of trading system will help to ensure that your losses are kept to as minimum an amount as possible.

Forex Charts - A Simple System for Big Profits

Forex charts show a trend when we look back at them - but predicting which way prices will go in the future by studying Forex charts is a different matter!

Charting is an art more than a science. Use the right tools in the right way, and you’ll win - and if you don’t you’ll lose – it really is that simple.

This article is all about using technical analysis the RIGHT way - and using Forex charts to make big consistent profits.

Let’s start with the basics of why technical analysis is so effective in Forex trading.

The market prices all known fundamentals

Using technical analysis means you can see not only the affect of the fundamentals - but also human psychology, to give you the WHOLE picture. The simple equation for this is:

Fundamentals + Human Perception = Price.

The great advantage of technical analysis is that investors determine the price of anything (in Forex trading or any other market) - as human nature is constant, human psychology shows up in repetitive price patterns.

How do you spot which way human psychology is going to take prices next?

Here we are going to look at some PROVEN methods and indicators, you can use to generate trading signals - and turn your trades into low risk high profit opportunities.

1. The Basics – Trend Lines

You need to start and learn to draw basic trend lines to spot opportunities. Many traders don’t use trend lines, but trend lines are essential when looking at Forex charts.

2. Support and Resistance

Any chartist must be familiar with this concept.

If you understand support and resistance correctly, it can be the basis of a very successful Forex trading strategy.

Let’s define it:

It describes the levels where prices move to and then reverse.

In a bull market prices rise to resistance levels and fall - in a bear market prices fall to support and then rise.

When prices break above or below significant support or resistance, a big move can follow - especially if the resistance or support is valid.

So how do you know if support or resistance is valid?

Look for many tests - and look for how many different time periods tests have occurred in - by looking back at your Forex charts.

3. Watch for the Breakout

If prices punch through important support or resistance, then the odds are that the supply and demand position is changing - and the break will indicate a new trend.

Going with breakouts, and trading in the direction of the break is simple and logical - but most traders can’t do it. Why? Because most traders like to buy low and sell high - so they wait for a pullback - and this doesn’t come, and they miss the move.

By going with the break, you miss the start of the move - but the odds of it continuing are high.

It’s a fact that most major currency trends start from new market highs - NOT market lows. To catch the trend you need to go with the break, however not every breakout works - and some fail.

So how do you decide if a break is going to continue? The key is to watch price changes in terms of momentum and volatility.

Volatility Indicators

Volatility is a term used to describe the magnitude, or size, of day-to-day price fluctuations - regardless of their direction.

Generally, changes in volatility lead to changes in prices - and a breakout that is accompanied by high volatility, is the ideal set up.

An indicator you should look at to determine volatility is the Bollinger band. Bollinger bands can also help you identify support, resistance and targets for the move.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over given time-periods. Momentum indicators can therefore determine the strength or weakness of a trend by looking at changes in price.

If price momentum accelerates on a break, then the odds are that the break will continue.

There are two fantastic indicators for looking at changes in momentum and they are:

The Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Both give you a highly visual picture of changes in price momentum.

A Simple but Very Effective Way to Trade

If you can spot valid support, watch for breakouts, and then confirm them on your Forex charts, using volatility and momentum indicators - you then have a system that can make big profits in Forex trading.

Using Barriers to Spawn High Probability Forex Trades

Learning how to identify areas where multiple barriers are can be very profitable for traders. Several kinds of cost barriers are in the Forex market. It is common for pairs of currency to reverse direction at these barriers. When traders learn how to combine them, traders are able to develop a system of trading with better chances to make good trades. Some barriers contain resistances levels, support levels, Fibonacci levels and psychological barriers. Barriers on trend lines and at pivot points can also enhance our observation. Now lets look at the various kinds of barriers common in the Forex market.

Support and Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels are huge changing points that the market has used before in the past. The more times the market has used them, the stronger they are. Support is seen as the changing point where the buyers put themselves at the top which made the currency pair go up. Resistance is any level at which the market finished rising and turned down. Support and resistance levels on larger time charts are considered better than those on smaller time charts.

Psychological Barriers

Psychological barriers are identified as huge numbers. A numeral ending in 50 or 00 is a great barrier. A number with the last numbers of 000 is more significant. You will be amazed at how much a currency pair exhausts itself and changes direction within a few pips of a psychological barrier.

Fibonacci Levels

Fibonacci lines are often used to determine if a point has the potential to reverse. Start with your larger time charts and draw Fibonacci lines on big moves. Drill down and mark all smaller moves. See where your Fibonacci lines, psychological barriers and support and resistance lines match.

Trend Lines

Make trend lines to mark all major moves and then work your way down to smaller trends. If you ever run into trend lines that go in the same direction, mark them. To do this, draw lines following the bottoms of an upward trend and make lines following the highest points of a downward trend.

Pivot Points

Most packages for charting have either a calculator or a tool that places your pivot points. These are areas at which the currency pair is likely to turn. Most tools and calculators offer several numbers both below and above the current levels of the currencies you follow.

Making lines to mark the various barriers that we always see in the FX market can help us identify the points that a pair will most likely change. Take note of those levels where many barriers correspond. This strengthens the chance of making trades that will make us money. The more barriers that meet at a given number, the more significant that barrier is.

Currency Trading Systems - 4 Tips for Choosing the Best

Using a currency trading system to make profits from the online Forex markets is now more popular than ever. Powerful personal computers and the Internet have made online currency trading systems an attractive option for all traders.

The money making concept is appealing - buy a system, plug it in and start making profits.

There are some good systems that you can buy, that can generate enough profit to pay for themselves many times over. However, the vast majority of systems are simply not worth paying for - and they’ll actually ensure that you lose money.

There are two main reasons why most currency trading systems lose:

1. Black-Box Systems

These are systems where the logic is not revealed to the buyer.

Even if the system is based on sound logic, the trader must have confidence in it - and for that he needs to understand exactly how and why it works.

If you don’t know the logic of the system, you won’t have the confidence and discipline to continue to follow it when it suffers a period of losses. If you don’t have the discipline to follow it, then you don’t have a system at all!

2. Curve Fitting and Optimization

Another factor to look for in a currency trading system is curve fitting - or optimization.

Whenever you see a hypothetical track record, you need to look and see if it has been curve fitted or optimized - and chances are it has been. These systems always give extraordinary performance in back testing - because the rules have been made to fit the data, and produce profits.

This is similar to shooting at a barn door, and then drawing circles around every hole after the event, to make sure that each shot scored a bull’s-eye.

We can all make a track record look good if we know the past data, but the problem is we don’t have the luxury of trading in the past. This is why most hypothetical track records NEVER show the same results in real time trading, as they did in their hypothetical simulations.

Avoid any system that offers different rules and parameters for trading different markets or different contracts. If the system is based on sound logic, then it should work in any trading market, without optimization or curve fitting.

Here are some tips to help you separate out the systems that are likely to lose, from the ones that could make you big profits:

1. The Methodology is Fully Explained

You can only have confidence in a Forex trading system if you know how it works. Then, when a trading system suffers a string of consecutive losses, you’ll still have the confidence and discipline to follow it until it ultimately makes a profit.

2. A Real Time Track Record

Has the system made money in the real world of trading?

This is a question many traders never ask - they simply accept a hypothetical track record. The trader then thinks they’ll achieve the same results in their FX trading - and they’re surprised when they don’t!

Look for a real time track record over the longer term. It won’t guarantee Forex profits, but it will at least show the system is based on sound logic.

If there’s a hypothetical track record and you want to buy the system, make sure it’s audited in real time with all transaction costs deducted. Many vendors do this to test their systems. While the track record is still classed as hypothetical, the fact it’s traded in real time, can give you an indication of its profit potential for the future.

3. Simple Systems Beat Complicated Systems

There is no correlation between how complicated a system is, and its profit potential. In fact, simple systems tend to work best - as they tend to be more robust in the real world of trading, with fewer elements to break.

Simple systems tend be easy to understand, easy to apply, and more profitable than complicated systems.

4. The Vendor Guarantee

You should research how much support the vendor offers - and a bit about their background. See if the person behind the system is real - and a trader.

Many systems are simply sold by marketing people, who use hypothetical track records – which as we’ve already seen, doesn’t guarantee profits.

Also look for a money back guarantee – this will give you confidence, as you know that the vendor himself has total confidence in his system.